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ferdowski,Do you by any chance work at the high rollers office in the Tropicana in Atlantic City? They recently made the same mistake you're making in this thread.The expection value of a single ticket for the current jackpot is positive once the jackpot exceeds 1/odds_of_winning/fraction_left_after_taxes_and_lawyers, _if_ we make the (unfortately unrealistic assumption) that there will be only one winner. The thing that screws people who pile in when the jackpot gets large is that the expected number of winners is greater than 1.
ferdowski,
Do you by any chance work at the high rollers office in the Tropicana in Atlantic City? They recently made the same mistake you're making in this thread.
The expection value of a single ticket for the current jackpot is positive once the jackpot exceeds 1/odds_of_winning/fraction_left_after_taxes_and_lawyers, _if_ we make the (unfortately unrealistic assumption) that there will be only one winner. The thing that screws people who pile in when the jackpot gets large is that the expected number of winners is greater than 1.
