- Joined
- 4/7/17
- Messages
- 86
- Points
- 18
I know that a permabear can in most cases (more or less) be like everyone's mother; i.e. telling you every day to wear your coat so to avoid catching a cold.. until one day you do catch a cold (like everyone does, sooner or later) and of course she had warned you. Similarly, many claim that Dr. Michael Burry (as well as zerohedge) depict a half-empty kind of reality. Strangely(?) enough, I more often find myself agreeing rather than disagreeing with them. Maybe I see the world through a half-empty prism myself too. However, if Jens O. Parsson is correct and 2010-2021 has actually been the gestation of the crash and inflation the catalyst, then Dr. Burry would not at all be a half-empty kind of guy but merely the guy "who (once again) simply looked" ("Big Short" - 2015).
Do you think it could actually be the case that something similar to post-modern Germany could also happen to post-covid America; and if yes, what could be the catalyst? Everyone around me looks overconfident, both about the market and mainly about themselves. And yet here I am, most probably a guy with much more to lose* (I work in the financial industry) being afraid to continue investing in that market (let alone in the crypto market). Are you at all worried for the unimaginably fat stimulus packages and the infinite quantitative easing which have deemed the markets and especially equities almost completely inelastic to fundamental factors and have carved their seemingly never-ending (in some cases exponential) upward trajectory? Could it be the case that inflation eventually does ramp up and with most CBs not being able to hike their IRs (because how would then so many bad-quality businesses refinance with higher rates), the situation gets out of control?
PS: "Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market." - Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations.
Although none of a market crash's precursors should be viewed in isolation, when one can identify several then the picture changes; it becomes gloomier. I.e. Gamestop, AMC etc. as well as pump and dump schemes in the crypto market are the living embodiment of the aforementioned expression. As a person who very closely monitored the GME action, the illiteracy and yet confidence of the people involved, betting not only a small portion of their savings but rather borrowing to get in the action, really scares me.
Too much (printed out of thin air) money lying around..? In my opinion this is not how "free and rational markets should behave"
*I am not trying to compare myself to anyone, just saying that in a market crash scenario I would most probably lose my job - as I assume many others would do too.
Apologies for the long post!
Do you think it could actually be the case that something similar to post-modern Germany could also happen to post-covid America; and if yes, what could be the catalyst? Everyone around me looks overconfident, both about the market and mainly about themselves. And yet here I am, most probably a guy with much more to lose* (I work in the financial industry) being afraid to continue investing in that market (let alone in the crypto market). Are you at all worried for the unimaginably fat stimulus packages and the infinite quantitative easing which have deemed the markets and especially equities almost completely inelastic to fundamental factors and have carved their seemingly never-ending (in some cases exponential) upward trajectory? Could it be the case that inflation eventually does ramp up and with most CBs not being able to hike their IRs (because how would then so many bad-quality businesses refinance with higher rates), the situation gets out of control?
PS: "Speculation alone, while adding nothing to Germany's wealth, became one of its largest activities. The fever to join in turning a quick mark infected nearly all classes..Everyone from the elevator operator up was playing the market." - Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations.
Although none of a market crash's precursors should be viewed in isolation, when one can identify several then the picture changes; it becomes gloomier. I.e. Gamestop, AMC etc. as well as pump and dump schemes in the crypto market are the living embodiment of the aforementioned expression. As a person who very closely monitored the GME action, the illiteracy and yet confidence of the people involved, betting not only a small portion of their savings but rather borrowing to get in the action, really scares me.
Too much (printed out of thin air) money lying around..? In my opinion this is not how "free and rational markets should behave"
*I am not trying to compare myself to anyone, just saying that in a market crash scenario I would most probably lose my job - as I assume many others would do too.
Apologies for the long post!
