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C'mon, don't back out now. I'm just beginning to have some fun. Quantnet is usually quiet and devoid of animated discussions. And Dominic has joined the fray.
This is not the United States I remember when I first came here in '79. It has changed almost beyond recognition, as has the world it inhabits. And back in '79 we never expected the Soviet Union to implode -- and look at the alacrity with which it occurred when it did occur. Now people are watching the United States for the same symptoms of senescence and decline. Dimitry Orlov draws some interesting parallels here.
As I've said before... those poor that are "only" subsisting on food stamps, medicaid, etc. are often getting QUITE a lot.
Let me establish my argument so we can move forward appropriately. I am not saying that I think the USA is happily chugging along without any issues. I am simply optimistically critical of the USA.
I think the deficit is going to be a huge problem. We live in a country that continually wants more and more government support yet the majority of people are not paying taxes as it is. We cannot continue to tax only one half of the population. Either reduce deductions thereby causing people who otherwise did not pay taxes to have to pay or just increase rates for everyone.
I think the military operations have obviously been very expensive and once they are scaled back you will see an immediate savings.
The economy is a mixed picture. Blue collar workers are the ones being hit the hardest. Educated workers have a much easier time. The age of unskilled manufacturing is done with in the USA. This is perfectly fine, a natural progression. Unskilled manufacturing is best suited for countries without the resources to educate the masses. We do not (in theory) fall into this category. In fact there is a demand for skilled manufacturing, something that is not as easily transferred overseas.
The educational system in this country is in trouble. We fact a unique problem because of the diversity inherent here.
With that said I still think we have the power to either improve or decline. The decision and fate is on our hands. China has and will continue to grow much faster than the world as a whole. They have over 1 billion Chinese who aspire for American middle class. You are seeing now the increase in wages demanded, the demand for white goods, the aging of their country.
The USA is still extremely free, open and vibrant. Our unemployment has been around 10% for 3 years now (or so). How long has Europe been in double digits. Is the United States not allowed a recessions from time to time? We could adopt European style labor laws, but flexibility to hire and fire allow companies the flexibility they need. Hiring is glacial in the UK and Europe because of the impossibility of getting rid of these employees.
I will end this column on unemployment. “Our government” tells us that the unemployment rate is just under 10 percent, a figure that would have wrecked any post-Great Depression administration. But, again, “our government” is lying.
Compare this fact with the number you read from the financial press. Right now, if measured according to the methodology of 1980, the US unemployment rate is about 22%. Thus, the reported rate of unemployment hides more than half of the unemployed.
(Source)If you’ve listened to recent speeches the President has given about the economy and the Iraq war, you’d think that two of the biggest social issues facing working Americans are improving. But facts are stubborn things.
Take for example the numbers of jobs lost in the last two months: 221,000 in June, 131,000 in July.
Instead of taking the drastic measures needed to stop the continued hemorrhaging, the President had this to say on August 5th:
“Even though it's going to take years to repair all the damage caused by this recession, I am absolutely convinced that this nation is finally headed in the right direction. Our economy is growing again. We are adding jobs again [!]. America is moving forward again…”
Since Obama has access to the above job numbers, we must assume that he is either delusional or lying. We also cannot attribute this comment to a one-time slip of the tongue, because Obama has essentially made the same speech several times while promoting Democratic candidates nationwide.
Contrary to his recent statements, Obama has not improved the economy. He has overseen a catastrophic destruction of jobs on a state-by-state basis, in part due to state budget crises and the pathetic lack of response on the national level: Obama’s first stimulus was under-funded and misdirected (too much emphasis on tax cuts for businesses, etc.), while Obama’s recent “stimulus”— only $26 billion — is simply farce.
(Source)An article published in Wednesday’s Financial Times under the headline “US Matches Indian Call Centre Costs” gives some indication of the impact on American workers of a coordinated and escalating wage-cutting drive by big business, backed by the Obama administration.
The article begins: “Call centre workers are becoming as cheap to hire in the US as they are in India, according to the head of the country’s largest business process outsourcing company. High unemployment levels have driven down wages for some low-skilled outsourcing services in some parts of the US, particularly among the Hispanic population.”
According to the article, a number of Indian outsourcing firms are shifting operations to the US to take advantage of low labor costs, a reversal from the 1990s when many call centers and software firms shuttered American operations to exploit educated but low-paid workers in India.
“We need to be very aware as people [in the US] are open to working at home and working at lower salaries than they were used to,” commented Pramod Bhasin, CEO of Indian firm Genpact. The company, which already outsources work to Chicago, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New York, intends to triple the size of its US workforce over the next year.
The Financial Times article is a stark indication that the corporate-government campaign to narrow the wage differential between American workers and super-exploited workers in Asia and other “emerging economies” is meeting with considerable success. The breakdown of American and world capitalism is being utilized by the ruling class to carry through a drastic and permanent reduction in American workers’ wages and living standards and raise the level of exploitation.
The housing market is a mess. Well that is what happens when people look at a home like a stock and not a store of value. Imagine if the government or banks started to cool of the housing bubble. I can just imagine the outrage individuals would of had for the "evil" banks destroying the American Dream. Market went up and popped. Now we have people claiming bankruptcy, paying off debt and renting instead of buying. That has deeply hurt our economy, but I think it is an entirely sensible response.
As far as the two part society, could you please explain to me how people are being held back from moving up? Maybe going from poor to Warren Buffet is unobtainable, but are you telling me a couple who do not have children cannot work and take college classes and eventually get a middle class job?
This is 60k a year untaxed, or probably around 90k a year before taxes. Add the 15k they are already making... WOAH THAT'S OVER 100k!For example, a single low-income mom with two kids gets the following subsidies:
Apartment: $50 per month. Normally $800 per month.
Healthcare: FREE. Normally $1100 per month.
Food Stamps: $700 per month.
Day care: $52 per month per child. Normally $1200 per month per child.
This comes to more than $5000 per month in government subsidies.
People over 65 also get a great deal. Per person $17,000 per year in Medicare, $5,000 in prescription medicines, $14,000 per year in Social Security.
Of course all this money comes from the 50% taxes they take out of our paychecks.
Where are you getting your "normally" figures from? lol
I've never paid $1100 per month for healthcare, even for a whole family with amazing coverage... I could believe about 700 a month or so for a family of 4 for great coverage but I doubt that that is what is being provided to the woman in question...
however... the $1200 a month per child in daycare takes the cake. It just sounds outrageous. If that's even remotely accurate I'll never make enough money to afford a kid! ... let alone two...
Thanks man.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That is all.
Edit, well for good measure: China Might Rank Second by GDP, But Ranks 99 for Per-Capita GDP -- Seeking Alpha
And for anyone who might rebut: well what about the poor? I discussed that in my post in the other thread... With governmental benefits, some are getting tired of caviar. Specifically, senior "daycares" (which are covered by medicaid) have ridiculous benefits including 50$ theater tickets, free access to amenities, and daily cuisine.
Actually, USA is the second-greatest country to live in (after Canada). But China's economy WILL overtake the economy of USA in 10 years time and China's economy WILL overtake the combined economies of USA and European Union in 20 years time. There's really nothing that can stop this from occuring.
As I've said before... those poor that are "only" subsisting on food stamps, medicaid, etc. are often getting QUITE a lot.
Alexei Smirnov said:I've never paid $1100 per month for healthcare, even for a whole family with amazing coverage... I could believe about 700 a month or so for a family of 4 for great coverage but I doubt that that is what is being provided to the woman in question...
Alexei Smirnov said:however... the $1200 a month per child in daycare takes the cake. It just sounds outrageous. If that's even remotely accurate I'll never make enough money to afford a kid! ... let alone two...
I think the deficit is going to be a huge problem.
Agreed, but a problem for who ?
The classical way out of this problem is inflation, indeed the default path for many western economies is headed that way because of recent measures and the very strong inflation pulse coming this winter from food prices.
Inflation can be modelled as a tax, and look at who the holders of US debt are to see how much fun that is going to be.
I am sure the Chinese will appreciate this. As if they already do not have enough leverage on us.
yet the majority of people are not paying taxes as it is.
Of itself that is neither good nor bad. The modern tax / borrow model is a British invention, devised less than 200 metres from where I'm currently sitting. At that time, only a few % of the population paid income based taxes, and it ushered in the greatest expansion of wealth in the history of the human race. But it was monotonically easy to expand the tax base, so that people whose income was so low that they received state benefits were still taxed on them, something now seen in most developed economies. So the Conservative led government in the UK is reducing the % of the population that pay income tax big time. It is felt by both left and right that taxing low paid reduces incentives to work, and doesn't being in much cash. Hint to any evangelicals here: poor people can't pay much tax.
We cannot continue to tax only one half of the population.
Yes you can, it might even be optimal.
In any case, you aren't, I doubt if there is any serious country where that is true.
There are sales taxes, 'charges' etc. That's wildly suboptimal, but all countries do it.
I think there should be skin in the game. At the Federal level less people are paying taxes. It might be fine right now, but when you have people who pay nothing voting and deciding there will be distortions. Who cares how much XYZ program costs if it is not you who will pay for it. Kids appreciate things they have to work for and earn. People appreciate things that directly hit them in the pocket book.
I think the military operations have obviously been very expensive and once they are scaled back you will see an immediate savings.
America's wars are expensive, but cheaper than the alternative.
Blue collar workers are the ones being hit the hardest.
Been true for many years, but here we hit the core of the problem.
What is good for the 'state' is often bad for the people in it.
Americans want a shit education system, it is working as designed. American kids receive a better understanding of football than maths. Teaching unions exploit the absurdities to make it worse.
In many parts of the USA education officials are directly elected, and Americans in free and fair elections pick people who exhibit a degree of religious hysteria that in Iran would be grounds for being force fed drugs to make you calm down. In Iran, they teach evolution as well.
Combine this with the way American media force feeds the idea that education is bad, and so if America did not have very strong and vicious incentives for kids to learn, then the economy as a whole would be screwed. These incentives fail in many cases of course.
Unskilled manufacturing is best suited for countries without the resources to educate the masses.
That contradicts your position. America does not have the resources to educate it's kids. Yes it has schools and a vast number of graduates, but it lacks resources like will and competence.
We have the resources to have schools open, to offer free education up until grad 12, to provide enough social welfare programs so kids do not have to farm and drop out of school at 3rd grade like they did historically. We have child labor laws, truancy laws, etc. Things are not perfect, but we do a lot to provide a K-12 education for all.
In fact there is a demand for skilled manufacturing, something that is not as easily transferred overseas.
Superbly untrue.
British manufacturing was highly skilled.
It's gone now.
Often it was lost to Germany and Japan who actually had higher hourly wage costs.
Look at chip and pharmaceutical manufacturing, which clearly meet the filter of requiring high skills.
Look at them leave the US.
I think highly skilled manufacturing slows the process or prevents it. Japan is being hit with outsourcing, but to closer by neighbors who are now very technically proficient. US machinists, skilled manufactures, people with value added are still in demand. China's weak IP laws are giving pharmaceutical and tech companies second thoughts about manufacturing there. All I am saying is when unskilled labor is your major cost there will either be automation or outsourcing.
In Manufacturing, Skilled Workers are in High Demand Shopfloor
We fact a unique problem because of the diversity inherent here.
Not even slightly true.
The overwhelming majority of kids in US schools can speak English before they start school.
Also, the least fucked up part of the US education system is the postgrad level, and that is the most diverse.
American education is bad because of a horrid mix of anti-semitism, religious inspired undermining of science, and obsession with sport. You could bring US education levels up to the dizzy heights of (say) Greece by eliminating inter school sport, in 5 years flat.
Won't happen.
You lost me at the antisemitism part.
China has and will continue to grow much faster than the world as a whole.
By necessity there is an upper bound for how long they can do that.
Of course, but I mean the here and now.
We could adopt European style labor laws, but flexibility to hire and fire allow companies the flexibility they need.
The flexibility of the US labour market is one of the USA's biggest strengths.
Hiring is glacial in the UK and Europe because of the impossibility of getting rid of these employees.
You voted for Sarah, right ?
UK laws are not as employer friendly as the USA, but they are simply not a significant factor in employment numbers. Redundancy payments are a couple of weeks pay per year of service and capped at a small level, hardly an 'impossible' barrier. We have less penal discrimination laws than the USA.
I just read an article about the dreaded French labor courts. Maybe employment rights in the EU are not the single handed factor, they do not help. It is extremely hard to fire workers, benefits are lucrative and jobs are very protected. The normal UK/EU worker is the equivalent of a unionized worker in the USA (IMO).
As far as the two part society, could you please explain to me how people are being held back from moving up?
Appalling levels of education in poor areas, high cost of education, racism.
I am not disagreeing that educational levels in inner city areas might be not the greatest, but we bus lower income kids to different schools, have inner city teaching programs, and other attempts to try and fix it. More can be done, but there is an effort. As far as I am concerned education is pretty cheap. Not as cheap as Europe, but someone could go part time and pay reasonable costs.
Maybe going from poor to Warren Buffet is unobtainable,
No it isn't. Just rare.
but are you telling me a couple who do not have children cannot work and take college classes and eventually get a middle class job?
By the time people are 'couples' the damage is mostly done.
Condoms are pretty cheap. It sucks people make bad decisions, but I am not interested in living in a nanny state.
People have children too early,
This is of course partly driven by religious hysteria that prevents effective sex education in many schools.
I agree that there is some of this going on, but by and large sex education is taught. People having children too early is an individual decision (or mistake).
We have no caste systems,
Wholly untrue. In the USA the best predictor of a child's income is that of his father.
I am not going to disagree with that, but just because a child comes from a poor father does not mean they have to be poor themselves. The USA has no formal caste system. People are free to put as much effort into their lives as they want.
We have plenty of low cost universities where someone can get a degree that will provide them with more than a minimum wage job.
A degree is not a risk free investment by any stretch of the imagination, and degrees with good risk/return characteristics require that you have a good base education first.
If you are uneducated your job prospects are pretty bleak. A local degree from whatever university will still provide many more opportunities then just a high school education. If the parents go to school then the children will go to school. Maybe they will have it better. Have to start somewhere.
Also, I don't hear too many immigrants complaining. The people that complain are the ones who have always lived here. I don't think you can really appreciate the opportunities provided here unless you come from another country.
But you do hear the locals, especially tea party types pushing for less immigration, especially by coloured people. They are being quite successful. That will end badly for the USA.
The number might sound outrageous to you but might sound low to parents. The figure sounds reasonable and it can be even higher. Also, if you live in NYC, forget it. Not only it is expensive but it is impossible to get in pre-schools too. Somebody made a documentary about this. I will try to find the link but you can see it on Showtime.
The most powerful economies in the world are usually the most powerful military powers. What happens when China over takes the USA in nominal GDP? War.
Also the EU doesn't have an immigration policy. It has around 30 of them, Americans see racism in some of their southern states trying to form locally based harassment of coloured people who 'look foreign'.
That's nothing compared to Europe. Austrian governments have associates of the SS, yes, that SS, Ireland until recently gave citizenship to people with "Irish sounding names", Britain recognises gay marriage in citizenship but most others don't, it's extraordinarily hard to become a German citizen unless you're white, and whilst several EU states have removed all border checks with each other, some still have men with guns. In some parts of the EU, you are not allowed to live in a town unless the police say it's OK, even if you are a citizen of that country, born there.
So the advantages should go to Wall Street as far as jobs in finance are concerned?I can get a visa for NY and work in SF, or Hawaii. An American wanting to work in the EU would need around two dozen.
Colored people? You mean illegal immigration. The USA is more than happy to have people from all over the world come here. The thing is you are not allowed to just walk over the boarder and become a citizen. I wonder if anywhere in the EU would allow me free citizenship and a job with all rights attached if I just hopped a fence.