Chasing the Flush

[MRoss]

Well, smart or not? I see polished poker players doing this; but the math just doesn't add up!

Scenario: Me and 5 other players at a table. I have 4 and Q of hearts. The flop: 3 hearts, 5 hearts, 10 spades.

The question: What to do? Check, call, raise low, raise high, go all in? I see pros betting very heavily, sometimes going all in. I just don't get it.

Why I don't get it: There are 13 hearts. 4 are already eliminated. I only know that one other card has been eliminated. So the count is now: 9 hearts random. 38 others random.

So the probability of a heart coming out is: 9/38 + 9/37 = 48%

There is also the possibilities that:

1. Someone else can beat your flush, especially if two hearts come out.
2. Someone else has a full house or better

I get that initially when you have a pair betting hard is smart because in the "known" world you are the best off, even if other players have solid hands, but what about this? The other players have already seen the cards and your chance of landing the flush all taken into account is probably around 35%.

My experience: A few years of online poker play. I have netted a few hundred dollars, all from $80 initial deposit. I have a strict set of rules I made up; I don't play with emotion or guessing ever. In the above scenario my rule is do NOT play it. And if the opponent is playing it (which I can usually tell) and I have a pair or greater, match his call. But I find that when I have the suit it is hard emotionally not to raise...

 

[AndrewChang]

Well, smart or not? I see polished poker players doing this; but the math just doesn't add up!

Scenario: Me and 5 other players at a table. I have 4 and Q of hearts. The flop: 3 hearts, 5 hearts, 10 spades.

The question: What to do? Check, call, raise low, raise high, go all in? I see pros betting very heavily, sometimes going all in. I just don't get it.

Why I don't get it: There are 13 hearts. 4 are already eliminated. I only know that one other card has been eliminated. So the count is now: 9 hearts random. 38 others random.

So the probability of a heart coming out is: 9/38 + 9/37 = 48%

There is also the possibilities that:

1. Someone else can beat your flush, especially if two hearts come out.
2. Someone else has a full house or better

I get that initially when you have a pair betting hard is smart because in the "known" world you are the best off, even if other players have solid hands, but what about this? The other players have already seen the cards and your chance of landing the flush all taken into account is probably around 35%.


My experience: A few years of online poker play. I have netted a few hundred dollars, all from $80 initial deposit. I have a strict set of rules I made up; I don't play with emotion or guessing ever. In the above scenario my rule is do NOT play it. And if the opponent is playing it (which I can usually tell) and I have a pair or greater, match his call. But I find that when I have the suit it is hard emotionally not to raise...

you cannot say it is 38 others random... you only know 5 cards, therefore 47 cards are random.

just memorize the following rule,
2 * the number of outs * the number of cards left to flop
in your case,
~36% hitting your flush.

the entire game is an expected value game. if you have a 36% chance of winning the pot, and let's say the pot is $2, you would pay approximately $1 to enter IF YOU BELIEVE THERE WILL BE NO MORE RAISES AT THE TURN. Also depends on how many people are in the game etc. Remember only the max of four hands matters. Pocket aces win only ~31% of the time if you play on a 9 person table.

I would play it because #1, if you hit a flush, you most likely win the hand in this case since there are no pairs on board. Only way for them to beat you is if the other person has two pair or a pocket. very unlikely two pair since no one in their right mind would play any combination of 3 5 or 10 hand so only way is to have pockets. even with pocket 3 or pocket 5, you would not play that hand because the low chances of winning with a low pocket.

You also have top card. If other person raises, only plausible thing is either they are playing A2 or are bluffing. You have approximately a 50-50 chance of beating the other person if they have A2. If you bet, expected value > 0. Good to go.

I played a lot of poker not too long ago...

 

[MRoss]

you cannot say it is 38 others random... you only know 5 cards, therefore 47 cards are random

Ha! I have no idea how I messed those numbers up. It seemed a bit high

So the point is humble calls is ok, but don't play too aggressive? Of course it is an EV game but there are so many rvs its impossible to be perfect. In a strange way, most of my methods are based on gut, though generally there is some math involved.

So if pot is $10 each player has approx $20 and someone raises $5. Call? Reraise? Fold?

 

[AndrewChang]

Ha! I have no idea how I messed those numbers up. It seemed a bit high

So the point is humble calls is ok, but don't play too aggressive? Of course it is an EV game but there are so many rvs its impossible to be perfect. In a strange way, most of my methods are based on gut, though generally there is some math involved.

So if pot is $10 each player has approx $20 and someone raises $5. Call? Reraise? Fold?

I would call for the turn. If I get an open ended straight draw, I would consider calling again if the other person raises. Heart/Q, play it hard.

 

[NormanYu]

Played online professionally for a while, so I just can't resist a poker thread. To answer your question, pretty much doing anything other than folding is the correct play. I believe the scenario you gave is 6 players to the flop and someone has bet. Here, flatting is probably the best option. However, for a competent player, this situation is unrealistic because it is dangerous to be in a marginal situation against a large number of opponents. ie. Q4 suited will rarely give you the best hand, so you always have to be wary about someone beating you, especially with 5 opponents.

From a purely mathematical standpoint, someone would have to bet more than the pot in order for you to not get proper odds on hitting your flush with 2 cards to come. Very quickly, prob. of flush hitting ~36%, pot has $x, opponent bets x, if you call then you pay x to win 2x. The breakeven equity you need on the call is 33% which you exceed with the flush draw. This is not even taking into account your implied odds (the extra amount of money you could win from your opponents if you do hit). Granted, like you said, you do have to worry about reverse implied odds (you make your flush but someone makes a better hand than you, causing you to lose more money) but this will almost always be less than or equal to your implied odds.

If the pot had less players in it, say just 1 or 2 opponents, you have a lot more options at your disposal. Raising becomes a much more viable option, which I would prefer, since it helps you do a few things that are important in poker.
1. It merges your value betting hand range (hands like top pair or better that you would bet for value) with your bluffing range. This keeps you unpredictable as long as you follow a similar betting pattern with both types of hands in a similar situation.
2. Being the aggressor gives you a chance to win the pot outright. A fold by your opponents is the ideal scenario, but even if they continue, you have a good amount of equity most of the time. Calling can you also give you the option to bluff at a later street if given the opportunity, but this will be a more expensive and complicated bluff.

3. It helps to better define your opponent's range of hands. If he bets and you raise, he is very unlikely to continue with nothing; you can assume your opponent will have at a minimum a pair if he continues. If you had just called, no additional information would be gained since the opponent could have been betting on the flop just to steal the pot.

Those reasons above are pretty much why the pros will choose to play their flushes aggressively more often than not. Not to say that just flatting can't also be good, but generally you want to weigh on the more aggressive side. As an aside, on the same flop but against just 1 opponent, if he had JJ and you had AK of hearts, you are ahead in equity. With Q4 of hearts you have around 45% equity.