The changing face of New York

[bigbadwolf]

Interesting article in the NY Post:

It’s not just a few Upper West Siders who are fleeing New York: Moving companies say they’re swamped with calls from residents looking to ditch the city — even though the COVID crisis has waned.

One likely reason: The virus was but the last straw; New Yorkers are fed up with the shootings and lootings, homelessness on the streets, sub-par online schools, sky-high taxes and the sheer obliviousness of pols like Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

 

[ApolloChariot]

The situation is so much worse than what many people realize.

The city depends on tourism which isn't going to be anywhere near precovid levels for years; 1.6 million people commuted into Manhattan pre-covid, and many businesses and jobs in the city depend on them. Even if the coronavirus disappeared tomorrow, the trend of more people working from home will negatively affect commercial real estate and greatly reduce the number of jobs in the city, compared to pre-covid levels.

On top of that, new york state and new york city budgets will be disproportionately and negatively affected. Many people now think paying through the nose to live in NYC no longer makes sense.

Add the worrying rising crime rate, and I would be very hesitant to go to a school like NYU or Columbia as a graduate student when their tuition imo cannot be justified with an online only learning experience in this economy.

 

[bigbadwolf]

And another:

I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight.

My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street.

I don’t think I have an answer but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC.

I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 30% — more people are moving away than ever before.

 

[bigbadwolf]

The Late Cretaceous dinosaurs must have been talking about a V-shaped recovery after the meteorite hit.

 

[Andy Nguyen]

Of all the gloom and doom posts by @bigbadwolf over the years he's been here, I think he is right for once.
NYC is powered by finance industry, tourism and people who come to the city everyday to work, study and live.
When tourism is shut down, companies realizing they can have employees work from home for months without big interruption, the shift is happening. When you move out of NYC and realize how expensive it is, it is hard to come back.

 

[IntoDarkness]

T-rex has feathers

 

[binomial-torrent]

Meanwhile stock market at all-time high

 

[noether-skolem]

When you move out of NYC and realize how expensive it is, it is hard to come back.

As a prospective MFE student currently looking for a room/studio in the city I can certainly relate before even stepping foot there. Here I thought Singapore was expensive.

On a side note seems like the pandemic has pushed rent downward compared to recent years? Property sites like zillow seem to provide rent "estimates" that are like 20-30% higher across the board, based on the handful of rooms/studios I've checked.

 

[bigbadwolf]

On a side note seems like the pandemic has pushed rent downward compared to recent years? Property sites like zillow seem to provide rent "estimates" that are like 20-30% higher across the board, based on the handful of rooms/studios I've checked.

Yes, rent has gone down and is continuing to go down. In New York but also in Philadelphia, Chicago, Seattle, Minneapolis, Portland and pretty much all "blue" cities where there's a problem with law and order. COVID-19 and law and order together, to be accurate.

 

[bigbadwolf]

Where is Batman?

 

[MLV]

I lived in NYC for 5+ years and just recently moved away. Initially, the wife and I lived and worked in FiDi in a "large" studio, but when we had a baby we quickly realized we needed more space, so we tried Brooklyn. After ~1 year we realized living in the city was completely unsustainable so we moved to Paulus Hook in Jersey City. It was the best decision we could've made.

Paulus Hook is not cheap by any means, but it is cheaper than Manhattan (and Brooklyn Heights / Dumbo / Cobble Hill), taxes are substantially lower and it is so quiet in comparison to NYC (which is important to me because after a 80+ hour workweek, I like to relax during "protected" Saturdays). My commute was even shorter than when I lived in Brooklyn. Also, buildings were actually built with the purpose of being residential spaces - unlike the apartment buildings you find in FiDi, that used to be corporations until a developer moved in and shoved apartment units into every little awkward space they could find. None of those pre-war, 4-flights-of-stairs deals either. We lived there happily for 3+ years.

For me, it was never about any "shootings and lootings" because I never really ran into that (I did get mugged once, tho), or sub-par education for my kid (she's always been in private school). It was more about me working my ass off like a maniac in a high-paying job trying to build a career that would allow me to give my family the life I want for them, and never really getting any closer to where I wanted – even as I escalated through my bank’s hierarchy. Moving out of NYC really made the difference for me, even if it was as close as moving over the Hudson. It certainly reflected in my mood and my overall well-being (I get all the stress I need from my job – don’t need my living situation to add any more).

A more senior colleague once said to me on the topic of being an investment banker and a Dad: "you have to take comfort in knowing that your family will be provided for, but you won't be there". I'm trying to break that stigma so now, I live in Houston. I transferred to the HOU office with the same firm, same salary and same seniority back in April. Life’s is so different here; huge living spaces, a ton of nature, friendly neighbors, etc. Thus far, I do get a lot more life balance than back when I worked in NYC, but might be too soon to tell (specially with the whole WFM situation). Weather sucks, but then again: it sucked in NYC too.

I would still recommend living in NYC to really get the ‘finance experience’… as long as you’re single and don’t really have any other priorities than getting said experience. Once you’re in the family boat, 10/10 I’d tell you it’s time to move out (unless you’re rich – then stay and enjoy the best restaurants on the planet along with everything else the city has to offer, walk over the homeless people and laugh at the many social problems described in detail on previous posts and countless web articles).

 

[Andy Nguyen]

@MLV
Great post. Nice to see posts from a seasoned ex-MFE professional here.
I share similar experience. Lived in NYC for almost 20 years, with last 2 years in Forest Hills before moving out of the big Apple. I live in Katy, TX for a few years now. Hello from another NY transplant living in Houston.
NYC was great. It was the best experience throughout my undergrad, MFE, Wall Street years. I did a lot of socializing, networking with coworkers, classmates and the subway makes it extremely convenient. Meeting someone is a breeze and the restaurant scene is amazing.
Once I started working and having a family, NYC is pretty cramped. Finding a street parking is a nightmare unless you pay $200/month for an indoor parking spot. 1BR rental is 2K/month back in those days.
I'm fortunate that I can work anywhere and have been doing that for 10 years. In hindsight, I should have moved out of NYC earlier but things happened for a reason.

Agree, work life balance is much better elsewhere. House is way bigger here as they say everything is bigger in Texas. Public school is pretty good in the suburb. The weather sucks and there's not much to do here.

 

[IntoDarkness]

there is a possibility implied from the latest corp communication at my bank that wfh can become permanent... i'm thinking about austin

 

[Andy Nguyen]

there is a possibility implied from the latest corp communication at my bank that wfh can become permanent... i'm thinking about austin

Do it. When Elon Musk asked his staff in California where you like to live, the majority chose Austin. That's where they are building a new Giga factory. I drove to Austin a few times and it's a pretty nice area to live, young, liberal and hip. People compare it the next Silicon Valley for a reason. No state income tax is cherry on top. I wouldn't mind living there.

 

[ExSan]

The New York Times: Manhattan Vacancy Rate Climbs, and Rents Drop 10%.

Manhattan Vacancy Rate Climbs, and Rents Drop 10% (Published 2020)

There were more than 67,300 units available in July across the city as it tries to rebound from the coronavirus outbreak.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Daniel Duffy]

[...]

(unless you’re rich – then stay and enjoy the best restaurants on the planet [...].

That's very debatable, especially if you are used to European cuisine.
Certainly, the most expensive restaurants in the world.

 

[bigbadwolf]

While overall only five percent of residents left as of May, in the city’s very wealthiest blocks residential population decreased by 40 percent or more. The higher-earning a neighborhood is, the more likely it is to have emptied out. Even the amount of trash collected in wealthy neighborhoods has dropped, a tell-tale sign no one is home. A real estate agent told me she estimates about a third of the apartments even in my mid-range 300 unit building are empty. The ones for sale or rent attract few customers. She says it’s worse than post-9/11 because at least then the mood was “How do we get NYC back on its feet?” instead of now, when we just stand over the body and tsk tsk through our masks.

Enough New Yorkers are running toward the exits that it has shaken up the greater area’s housing market. Another real estate agent describes the frantic bidding in the nearby New Jersey suburbs as a “blood sport.” “We are seeing 20 offers on houses. We are seeing things going 30 percent over the asking price. It’s kind of insane.”

When Half of NYC’s Tax Base Leaves and Never Comes Back

Without anyone left to pay for the city, the Big Apple is headed for a failed state.

www.theamericanconservative.com

 

[Ken Abbott]

I lived in NYC for 5+ years and just recently moved away. Initially, the wife and I lived and worked in FiDi in a "large" studio, but when we had a baby we quickly realized we needed more space, so we tried Brooklyn. After ~1 year we realized living in the city was completely unsustainable so we moved to Paulus Hook in Jersey City. It was the best decision we could've made.

Paulus Hook is not cheap by any means, but it is cheaper than Manhattan (and Brooklyn Heights / Dumbo / Cobble Hill), taxes are substantially lower and it is so quiet in comparison to NYC (which is important to me because after a 80+ hour workweek, I like to relax during "protected" Saturdays). My commute was even shorter than when I lived in Brooklyn. Also, buildings were actually built with the purpose of being residential spaces - unlike the apartment buildings you find in FiDi, that used to be corporations until a developer moved in and shoved apartment units into every little awkward space they could find. None of those pre-war, 4-flights-of-stairs deals either. We lived there happily for 3+ years.

For me, it was never about any "shootings and lootings" because I never really ran into that (I did get mugged once, tho), or sub-par education for my kid (she's always been in private school). It was more about me working my ass off like a maniac in a high-paying job trying to build a career that would allow me to give my family the life I want for them, and never really getting any closer to where I wanted – even as I escalated through my bank’s hierarchy. Moving out of NYC really made the difference for me, even if it was as close as moving over the Hudson. It certainly reflected in my mood and my overall well-being (I get all the stress I need from my job – don’t need my living situation to add any more).

A more senior colleague once said to me on the topic of being an investment banker and a Dad: "you have to take comfort in knowing that your family will be provided for, but you won't be there". I'm trying to break that stigma so now, I live in Houston. I transferred to the HOU office with the same firm, same salary and same seniority back in April. Life’s is so different here; huge living spaces, a ton of nature, friendly neighbors, etc. Thus far, I do get a lot more life balance than back when I worked in NYC, but might be too soon to tell (specially with the whole WFM situation). Weather sucks, but then again: it sucked in NYC too.

I would still recommend living in NYC to really get the ‘finance experience’… as long as you’re single and don’t really have any other priorities than getting said experience. Once you’re in the family boat, 10/10 I’d tell you it’s time to move out (unless you’re rich – then stay and enjoy the best restaurants on the planet along with everything else the city has to offer, walk over the homeless people and laugh at the many social problems described in detail on previous posts and countless web articles).

Well-said, @MLV. I left finance for education two years ago after a 35-year career on Wall Street. Only now do I realize how all-consuming it was. Would I give it up, though? No chance. I had a great experience living and working in NYC. My suburban/rural life is much better now, but being part of the whole NYC thing was great.

 

[binomial-torrent]

I’m in austin now working at an investment firm headquartered here. Lots of pretty ladies, even more so than nyc

 

[noether-skolem]

Well-said, @MLV. I left finance for education two years ago after a 35-year career on Wall Street. Only now do I realize how all-consuming it was. Would I give it up, though? No chance. I had a great experience living and working in NYC. My suburban/rural life is much better now, but being part of the whole NYC thing was great.

I think Ken has a good point here, you kinda have to experience it to know whether it's for you or not - and even if not, it'll probably still make for an interesting experience working/studying at a big city for a few years.

I grew up in a small city before moving to bigger cities (granted, not NYC big/expensive) for high school and university, and I'm looking forward to experiencing NYC for the next few years even though I may not end up liking the place.