The changing face of New York

[ApolloChariot]

I too am skeptical of that "study".

I was only quoting a fact.
I do dispute that piece on NYP; the logic is somewhat flawed.

Conclusions of a non peer reviewed report are not "fact".

Purely on a prima facie basis, the number cited is beyond laughable. The report concludes that 250k+ reported cases, just from Aug 2 to Sep 2 are attributable to that event. Since the event was from August 7th to August 16th, and there is a lag between reported positive result and actual infection date, it would imply that about half of the total reported cases from the entire country is attributable to a single event in South Dakota.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

I too am skeptical of that "study".


Conclusions of a non peer reviewed report are not "fact".

Purely on a prima facie basis, the number cited is beyond laughable. The report concludes that 250k+ reported cases, just from Aug 2 to Sep 2 are attributable to that event. Since the event was from August 7th to August 16th, and there is a lag between reported positive result and actual infection date, it would imply that about half of the total reported cases from the entire country is attributable to a single event in South Dakota.

So, which part is not 'fact'

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

Not a reason to say that large groupings _don't_ help spread COVID-19.

Denial is not a river in Egypt.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

HEALTH AND SCIENCE

Fauci says a coronavirus vaccine is ‘unlikely’ by U.S. election​

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/08/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-its-unlikely-it-will-be-ready-by-us-election.html

He called the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. a “mixed bag” as new cases fall in the southern region of the country and cases surge in states such as Montana, the Dakotas, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa.

Even Trump admitted to Bob Woodward that COVID-19 is a big problem.

 

[ApolloChariot]

So, which part is not 'fact'

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

Not a reason to say that large groupings _don't_ help spread COVID-19.

Denial is not a river in Egypt.

Once again, the conclusions of a non peer reviewed study is not fact; do you not understand that?

Just because I see the 250k+ number as ridiculous does not mean I believe large group gatherings do not result in positive cases: believe it or not, the event causing 250k+ cases and causing zero or extremely few cases are not the only two possible outcomes. Any other straw man arguments or condescending remarks you would like to throw out?

 

[bigbadwolf]

Even Trump admitted to Bob Woodward that COVID-19 is a big problem.

Trump is a moron. The majority of deaths that can be attributed to the virus are mostly septuagenarians and octogenarians in nursing homes, most of whom have other health complications. At the moment if I die from an automobile accident and they discover COVID-19 in my system (as they probably would), they attribute my death to "COVID-19 complications." It seems the virus is no more lethal than others of its ilk in the last two or three decades and certainly does not match in magnitude the great influenza epidemic of 1918.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

Once again, the conclusions of a non peer reviewed study is not fact; do you not understand that?

Just because I see the 250k+ number as ridiculous does not mean I believe large group gatherings do not result in positive cases: believe it or not, the event causing 250k+ cases and causing zero or extremely few cases are not the only two possible outcomes. Any other straw man arguments or condescending remarks you would like to throw out?

Me condescending, never!! More like shoot-from-the-hip.
Anyways, nice try..

If you really want to be constuctive you could review that article instead of attacking me.
If this is how far you are, then there is little hope. Denial is not a river in Egypt.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

Trump is a moron. The majority of deaths that can be attributed to the virus are mostly septuagenarians and octogenarians in nursing homes, most of whom have other health complications. At the moment if I die from an automobile accident and they discover COVID-19 in my system (as they probably would), they attribute my death to "COVID-19 complications." It seems the virus is no more lethal than others of its ilk in the last two or three decades and certainly does not match in magnitude the great influenza epidemic of 1918.

What a great memory you have! 1918.

I find the above reasoning in your post is quite logically fallacious, a bit like the No True Scotsman.

It's what is not being said needs to be addressed.

 

[Daniel Duffy]

@ApolloChariot

I don't do straw man arguments as you seem to be inferring. As early as March 2002 I analysed the much-touted COVID-19 software from Neil Ferguson which was used by UK and US governments. It is discussed in excruciating detail.

Blogs - Analysis of Covid-19 Mathematical and Software Models :: Datasim

This report undertakes a critical examination of the by now well-discussed open-source software based on an epidemiological model from a team from Imperial College London..

www.datasim.nl

 

[ApolloChariot]

Me condescending, never!! More like shoot-from-the-hip.
Anyways, nice try..

If you really want to be constuctive you could review that article instead of attacking me.
If this is how far you are, then there is little hope. Denial is not a river in Egypt.

You’re the one who first used personal attacks, not me. Hypocrisy, thy name is.....

I told you why the conclusion is ridiculous on the face of it, instead of addressing it you merely pointed to the dozens page report. If YOU wanted to be constructive, you can do more than simply regurgitate the link and write “denial is not a river in Egypt”.

If blindly accepting the conclusions of a non peer reviewed report and ignoring any criticism of it is your idea of critical thinking and independent thought, hey that’s your prerogative.

 

[ApolloChariot]

What a great memory you have! 1918.

I find the above reasoning in your post is quite logically fallacious, a bit like the No True Scotsman.

It's what is not being said needs to be addressed.

The next time I see you actually contribute any substance to this discussion would be the first.

You know, believe it or not, one can know things about the distant past by reading historical accounts. And before you ask, it's also possible to know about things that happen thousands of miles away even though you're not there. Quite the novel concept, huh?

@ApolloChariot

I don't do straw man arguments as you seem to be inferring. As early as March 2002 I analysed the much-touted COVID-19 software from Neil Ferguson which was used by UK and US governments. It is discussed in excruciating detail.

Blogs - Analysis of Covid-19 Mathematical and Software Models :: Datasim

This report undertakes a critical examination of the by now well-discussed open-source software based on an epidemiological model from a team from Imperial College London..

www.datasim.nl

What does that have to do with anything? So now you're just resorting to non sequiturs?

I pointed out that your response was a straw man argument and your response is just post something you wrote 18 years ago? Do you plan to do anything in this discussion than regurgitate links and posting condescending remarks devoid of any substance?

 

[Daniel Duffy]

The next time I see you actually contribute any substance to this discussion would be the first.

You know, believe it or not, one can know things about the distant past by reading historical accounts. And before you ask, it's also possible to know about things that happen thousands of miles away even though you're not there. Quite the novel concept, huh?



What does that have to do with anything? So now you're just resorting to non sequiturs?

I pointed out that your response was a straw man argument and your response is just post something you wrote 18 years ago? Do you plan to do anything in this discussion than regurgitate links and posting condescending remarks devoid of any substance?

The next time I see you actually contribute any substance to this discussion would be the first.

You know, believe it or not, one can know things about the distant past by reading historical accounts. And before you ask, it's also possible to know about things that happen thousands of miles away even though you're not there. Quite the novel concept, huh?



What does that have to do with anything? So now you're just resorting to non sequiturs?

I pointed out that your response was a straw man argument and your response is just post something you wrote 18 years ago? Do you plan to do anything in this discussion than regurgitate links and posting condescending remarks devoid of any substance?

18 years ago., not it was 4 months ago and it exposed a white lie. You obviously don't know what went on.
A rally with 400,00 bikers is crazy,
200K people have died in USA.

Next you'll be saying is it only a virus and only old people contract it. But it has been politicised, how did it get that far.

The successful countries in combatting corona were China, Taiwan, DK, NZ.
You are in denial, it seems.

 

[ApolloChariot]

18 years ago., not it was 4 months ago

You're the one who wrote "March 2002". Now is that 4 months ago or 18 years ago? You obviously need to proofread what you write instead of blaming others.

Show me where I have stated that the event should have taken place. Once again, you assume that just because I cast doubt on the prima facie ridiculous conclusions of a non peer reviewed report, I must not take the coronavirus pandemic seriously.

Hopefully one day you will learn to critique what I actually posted instead of straw man arguments you imagined in your head.

 

[bigbadwolf]

Show me where I have stated that the event should have taken place. Once again, you assume that just because I cast doubt on the prima facie ridiculous conclusions of a non peer reviewed report, I must not take the coronavirus pandemic seriously.

If you won't say it, I'll say it: I see no reason why the South Dakota rally should not have taken place. Show me the number of deaths and seriously sick that unequivocally ensued from the rally and I may revise my opinion. Otherwise the fabricated number of "250,000 cases" is simply devoid of meaning. Just about all the numbers being fed to us are garbage. This is emphatically not an epidemic.

 

[ExSan]

Chelsea spike in crime

 

[ExSan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1327479092531355648

 

[bigbadwolf]

These are figures for carjackings in Chicago and DC but I daresay something similar has occurred in NYC.

Carjackings up 120% in Chicago and 93% in D.C.

From CWBChicago.com: Carjackings used to be so bad in Brazil that Sao Paulo\'s rich took to traveling only by helicopter. Is this what Joe Biden wants in the Biden Era? From the Chicago Tribune: I used to live on Chicago\'s North Side. Chicago police officials said they began noticing the spike...

www.unz.com

 

[ExSan]

NYC exodus amid coronavirus, crime​

 

[Daniel Duffy]

Here's how the Germans are tackling Corona

 

[binomial-torrent]

For what it’s worth I think NYC will survive just as a grimier city with bit more crime. Having grown up there it’s more than just international finance...

 

[Berenger]

For what it’s worth I think NYC will survive just as a grimier city. Having grown up there it’s more than just international finance...

It probably used to be more than international finance, before the fiscal crisis the city went through during the 70's. Here is well explained - if anything somewhat controversially - by someone who speaks like @Daniel Duffy :